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Although you might agree with the logic of the three-step investment process, you might wonder how well this process works in selecting investments. The results of several academic studies have supported this technique. First, studies indicated that most changes in an individual firm’s earnings could be attributed to changes in aggregate corporate earnings and changes in earnings for the firm’s industry, with the aggregate earnings changes being more important. Although the relative influence of the general economy and the industry on a firm’s earnings varied among individual firms, the results consistently demonstrated that the economic environment had a significant effect on firm earnings.Second, studies by Moore and Cullity (1988) and Siegel (1991) found a relationship between aggregate stock prices and various economic series, such as employment, income, and production. These results supported the view that a relationship exists between stock prices and economic expansions and contractions.Ketiga, analisis hubungan antara tingkat pengembalian untuk agregat pasar saham, industri alternatif, dan setiap saham menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar perubahan dalam tingkat pengembalian untuk saham individu dapat dijelaskan oleh perubahan dalam harga kembali untuk pasar saham agregat dan saham di industri. Seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh Meyers (1973), meskipun pentingnya efek pasar cenderung menurun dari waktu ke waktu dan pentingnya industri efek bervariasi antara industri, efek gabungan industri pasar di saham individu tingkat pengembalian adalah masih penting.
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