3.2 Earthquake Hazard
While it is not possible to predict the exact location or intensity of likely earthquakes, it is possible to calculate the expected return period for earthquakes within various intensity ranges. Past studies on likelihood of earthquake damage to locations in the Pacific Rim put Timor in classification VIII1. This classification indicates that the country is exposed to earthquakes with intensities classified as “Destructive”2 and which could cause significant damage and loss of life. The classification also indicates a 20% probability of exceeding level VIII and experiencing a “Ruinous” to “Catastrophic” intensity earthquake within a 50 year period.
It is also possible to map locally where seismic shaking can have higher relative impact. Data on potential for ground-shaking exists due to previous analysis in Timor-Leste, as does data for potential for soil liquification (Wine Langeraar, 2002). This type of data can be used to strengthen risk reduction measures in specific localities or districts that are considered more prone to these effects. It is understood that there are very few structures in Dili or district capitals that have been built with seismic resistance incorporated, and that almost all private dwellings being constructed are non-engineered concrete/masonry buildings. Such buildings could be expected to have very high rates of failure in a strong earthquake (6.0-6.9 magnitude) and devastating levels in a major earthquake (7.0-7.9) that were to have an epicenter close to Dili or any of the district capitals.
As was recommended in the National Disaster Risk Management Plan of 2006, there are many possible interventions to reduce the risks associated with earthquakes; these include: introduction of appropriate building codes; enforcement of codes, building permits and inspections; availability of basic construction standards to the public; training of masons and carpenters; and awareness raising regarding personal safety during earthquakes.