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The first is the 'Doomsday' scenario: the bond defaults and negotiations with
lenders fail. After two years from the date of default, a court-appointed administrator pays a fraction of the original principal from the proceeds of asset sales. To model this scenario, we use the original 'base case' bonds of Table 1 priced at par based on default probabilities. We assume that, immediately after the bond was issued and sold, new information arrives that it will default in year ten. In year twelve, settlement will occur with a settlement amount sufficient to reprice the bond at par.
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