The differential trends in non-citizen Medicaid participation and health insurance coverage
can be explained by a substantial increase in the probability that these immigrants were
covered by ESI. The bottom panel of Table 3 reports the trends in the rate of employerprovided
insurance for the various groups. The generosity of the state’s welfare program
towards immigrants does not affect the likelihood that natives are covered by ESI. The rate
of employer-sponsored insurance among natives rose by 2.6 percentage points in the more
generous states, and by 3.0 percentage points in the less generous states. In contrast, the rate
of ESI coverage for non-citizens rose by 2.7 percentage points in the more generous states,
and by an astounding 11.4 percentage points in the less generous states. The descriptive
evidence reported in Table 3, therefore, suggests a causal relationship between the Medicaid
cutbacks and the use of ESI coverage in the targeted population