Outflows set to be short-lived
The ongoing outflows from the Thai stock market are expected to be temporary as offshore investors will return after the policies of US President-elect Donald Trump become clearer, says Krungthai Asset Management (KTAM).
KTAM chief executive Chavinda Hanratanakool ruled out a permanent exit of foreign investors from the Thai bourse, noting that long-term investors have poured money into Asean's second-largest economy for the sake of diversification.
Foreign investors' sell-off of Thai shares has been visible since early this month, with the selling spree having intensified after the surprise victory of Mr Trump, who has promised huge spending and tax cuts at home, fanning expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more sharply than initially planned.
The anticipation has triggered US Treasury yield spikes, sell-offs in emerging markets and a firmer greenback.
Foreign investors have cashed out 17.7 billion baht from the Thai stock market this month, lowering their net buy to 96.8 billion this year.
But the baht yesterday, trailing most currencies in the region, reversed its three-day losing streak against the US dollar. The local currency was traded at 35.36 versus the dollar, compared with Monday's 35.50.
Foreign fund outflows will not adversely affect the Thai stock market as their holdings have not been significant, with over 200 billion baht having already been yanked out over the past three years, said Mrs Chavinda.
Moreover, a taxpayer buying spree in tax-saving equity funds, long-term equity funds (LTFs) and retirement mutual funds (RMFs) as the year winds down will be a cushion for capital outflows, she said.
Some 20 billion baht is expected to be put into LTFs and RMFs this year, similar to last year, added Mrs Chavinda.
KTAM expects the SET index will stand at 1,530 points at the year-end and rise to 1,670 at the end of next year, she said, adding that the targets are likely to be revised after Mr Trump's policy announcements.
Meanwhile, KTAM's assets under management (AUM) during the 10 months through October expanded 20%, well above the industry's growth rate of 13.8%. Private and mutual fund business were contributors to its strong AUM growth.