Going forward, global growth should pick up,
albeit at an appreciably slower pace than
previously projected, reaching 2.9 percent in 2016
and 3.1 percent in 2017-18. Global inflation is
expected to increase moderately in 2016 as
commodity prices level off, but will remain low by
historical standards. A modest upturn in global
activity in 2016 and beyond is predicated on a
continued recovery in major high-income
countries, a gradual slowdown and rebalancing in
China, a stabilization of commodity prices, and an
increase in global interest rates that is gradual and
stays well contained. All of these projections,
however, are subject to substantial downside risks