At 30 June 2012, O Ltd correctly anticipated that all managers would be eligible for the bonus because staff turnover among manager had been very low. However, by 30 June 2013, the company had moved to new premises and one manager, with a salary of $800,000, indicated that the additional travel was causing him to reconsider his position. The directors estimated that there was a 50% probability that the manager would resign by 31 December 2013,and an 80% probability that he would resign by June 2014.