Financial Ratios and Discriminant Analysis
rated the net working capital to total asset ratio as the best indicator of ultimate
discontinuance.^
X2—Retained Earnings/Total Assets}* This measure of cumulative profitability
over time was cited earlier as one of the "new" ratios. The age of a firm
is implicitly considered in this ratio. For example, a relatively young firm will
probably show a low RE/TA ratio because it has not had time to build up its
cumulative profits. Therefore, it may be argued that the young firm is somewhat
discriminated against in this analysis, and its chance of being classified as
bankrupt is relatively higher than another, older firm, ceteris paribus. But, this
is precisely the situation in the real world. The incidence of failure is much
higher in a firm's earlier years.^'
X.s-^Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets. This ratio is calculated
by dividing the total assets of a firm into its earnings before interest and
tax reductions. In essence, it is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's
assets, abstracting from any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate
existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be
particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. Furthermore,
insolvency in a bankruptcy sense occurs when the total liabilities exceed
a fair valuation of the firm's assets with value determined by the earning power
of the assets.
X4—Market Value oj Equity/Book Value oj Total Debt. Equity is measured
by the combined market value of all shares of stock, preferred and common,
while debt includes both current and long-term. The measure shows how much
the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus
debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
For example, a company with a market value of its equity of $1,000 and debt
of $500 could experience a two-thirds drop in asset value before insolvency.
However, the same firm with $250 in equity will be insolvent if its drop is only
one-third in value. This ratio adds a market value dimension which other failure
studies did not consider.^* It also appears to be a more effective predictor of
bankruptcy than a similar, more commonly used ratio: Net worth/Total debt
(book values).
X5—Sales/Total Assets. The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial
ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets. It is one
measure of management's capability in dealing with competitive conditions.
This final ratio is quite important because, as indicated below, it is the least