1 a decline in per capita food production;
2 increasing poverty;
3 a debt crisis;
4 civil unrest (Africa, with less than 10 per cent of the world’s population generated
almost 50 per cent of the world’s refugees in the late 1980s);
5 poor governance and corruption;
6 social factors (tribalism, greed, corruption, communal land use and so on).
Drought is often cited as cause of a sub-Saharan African difficulties, yet in most
countries there is no conclusive evidence that rainfall receipts have diminished or
become more variable in recent decades (Holmberg, 1992: 225). It is more likely that
drought in Africa reflects or exposes other weaknesses – a ‘litmus of development’ (for
a comprehensive report on the African environment see AEO, 2005; also available online
at http://www.grida.no/aeo/ – accessed March 2005).
Often it is possible to recognise what might cause a problem, but tracing why these
things happen is less easy. Western ethics are commonly blamed as the root cause of
environmental problems – a cancer that colonialism has spread (metastasis) around the
world. However, non-Western, non-colonised countries, remote areas not penetrated by
capitalism and the former communist bloc also have serious environmental problems.
Population growth cannot always be blamed, for there are situations where, despite very
low settlement density, there has been severe damage. In various countries there are
densely settled regions with unfavourable environments where people have sustained
themselves for centuries (in the case of interior Papua New Guinea, with simple stone
and wood tools). Population growth projections are therefore not a certain indicator that
environmental problems will occur, although it makes it more likely.
Livelihood strategies, which long served people, often in harsh environments, have
often broken down in recent years frequently causing environmental degradation. The
reasons are diverse, including population increase; structural adjustment; social changes;
spread of commercial agriculture; adoption of new crops; and restrictions on movement
of people or livestock. It is also valuable to examine past crises to see what threats have
materialised, and to try and unravel how society reacted. Lessons from the past may
prove invaluable to modern environmental managers, but caution is needed because
history rarely repeats itself exactly (Barrow, 2003; Diamond, 2005). It is also useful to
look at developments in similar current environments, but there is no guarantee of the
same outcomes.