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The Canadian government has just released its annual immigration target for 2017, with the majority of commentators saying 300,000 is an underwhelming figure, especially given the major hike that was expected.The Canadian government has just released its annual immigration target for 2017, with the majority of commentators saying 300,000However, before jumping to that conclusion, it is important to consider what the changes in target categories mean for Canada.Firstly, Canada’s target of 300,000 immigrants for 2016 is already a modern-era record for newcomer numbers.The increase – from 270,000 in 2015 – was driven by the goal of bringing in nearly 56,000 mainly-Syrian refugees.Canada’s 2017 Immigration PlanImmigrationCategory Category Low High TargetEconomic Federal Economic 69,600 77,300 73,700 Federal Caregivers 17,000 20,000 18,000 Federal Business 500 1,000 500 Provincial Nominee Programs 49,000 54,000 51,000 Quebec Skilled Workers and Business 28,000 31,200 29,300 Economic Total 164,100 183,500 172,500 Family Spouses, Partners and Children 62,000 66,000 64,000 Parents and Grandparents 18,000 20,000 20,000 Family Total 80,000 86,000 84,000 Refugees and Protected Persons Protected Persons in Canada and Dependants Abroad 13,000 16,000 15,000 Resettled Refugees 20,000 30,000 25,000 Government-Assisted 5,000 8,000 7,500 Blended Visa Office-Referred 1,000 3,000 1,500 Privately Sponsored 14,000 19,000 16,000 Protected Persons and Refugees Total 33,000 46,000 40,000 Humanitarian and Other Humanitarian and Other 2,900 4,500 3,500OVERALL 280,000 320,000 300,000Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship CanadaIn 2017, that refugee figure is set to drop to 40,000 (still significantly up on historic numbers), but the overall target remains at 300,000, with the gap being made up by 12,000 extra economic immigrants.Those numbers could grow even more, given the overall upper limit for new permanent residents is 320,000, and for economic immigrants is 183,500. Should the government get nearer these levels of immigration for 2017, it will represent somewhere near the significant increase that was talked about in the run up to Monday’s announcement.Second, if Canada is going to reach such high levels, the qualifying Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score under the Express Entry System looks likely to drop significantly. Here is why.HypothesisConsider that for its 2016 levels under the Federal Economic class, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will process the majority of admissions to Canada from applicants who submitted applications prior to the launch of the express entry system. It is expected that for 2017, this component will decline to about 25% of economic admissions to Canada or (18,425 applicants with dependents). This will allow about 55,275 admissions to be sourced from the express entry pool covering federal skilled worker program, federal skilled trades, Canadian experience Class, post graduate students (a new category expected to be created in 2017) and the newly created Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program.Hypothetically, if in 2017, the government issues 90,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through Express Entry, more than triple the approximately 24,000 invitations issued to-date in 2016, statistics show that only 60 per cent of those candidates will end up moving to Canada, bringing an average of 2.2 dependents along with them. This would translate to about 55,275 of the targeted 73,700, that will derive from candidates (plus dependents) in the express entry pool. This means that depending on the profiles of future applicants in the express entry pool, CRS scores need to drop below 400, at some point in 2017, for the first time since Express Entry began (the current lowest score is 453).Invitations with CRS scores above 450 are difficult to achieve without a positive LMIA. With IRCC still needing to achieve a targe
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