The Journal of Finance
model as a predictive technique. In section V the model's adaptability to practical
decision-making situations and its potential benefits in a variety of situations
are suggested. The final section summarizes the findings and conclusions of the
study, and assesses the role and significance of traditional ratio analysis within
a modern analytical context.
I. TRADITIONAL RATIO ANALYSIS
The detection of company operating and financial difficulties is a subject
which has been particularly susceptible to financial ratio analysis. Prior to the
development of quantitative measures of company performance, agencies were
established to supply a qualitative type of information assessing the creditworthiness
of particular merchants.^ Formal aggregate studies concerned with
portents of business failure were evident in the 193O's. A study at that time'
and several later ones concluded that failing firms exhibit significantly different
ratio measurements than continuing entities.^ In addition, another study was
concerned with ratios of large asset-size corporations that experienced difficulties
in meeting their fixed indebtedness obligations." A recent study involved
the analysis of financial ratios in a bankruptcy-prediction context." This latter
work compared a list of ratios individually for failed firms and a matched
sample of non-failed firms. Observed evidence for five years prior to failure
was cited as conclusive that ratio analysis can be useful in the prediction of
failure.
The aforementioned studies imply a definite potential of ratios as predictors
of bankruptcy. In general, ratios measuring profitability, liquidity, and solvency
prevailed as the most significant indicators. The order of their importance is
not clear since almost every study cited a different ratio as being the most
effective indication of impending problems.