In addition to the long-term benefits of combining foreign assets with domestic ones, we see several fundamental factors at work that, in our view, make it likely that international investments will add value to a portfolio from a return and risk perspective over the next few years. These include:
A continuation of the long-term trend in the decline of the dollar. When converted back to US dollars, investors’ foreign investments entail a return premium from currency when the US dollar weakens against the base currency/currencies. Note that gold and commodities, which are priced in US dollars, also provide currency protection in a declining- dollar environment.
The likelihood that over the next 20 years, the top-performing equity market(s) will not be the United States’. With well over 30 major equity markets globally, there is a strong chance that, in any given year, a country other than the United States will be the top performer. The same logic applies over a longer time horizon, and diversifying internationally is one way for investors to avoid effectively “betting” solely on the US.
The relatively low valuations of non-US developed and emerging markets as compared to their long-term averages. In our view, the current depressed valuations in many of these markets are not sustainable. By staying invested, we are more likely to benefit when valuations revert to more sustainable long-term levels (the exact timing of which we don’t believe anyone can accurately predict).