Ecosystems analysis, modelling and monitoring
Ecosystems (and environmental systems) may be analysed using systems theory, which
enables complex, changing situations to be understood and predictions made. Systems
theory assumes that measurable causes produce measurable effects. There have been
attempts to combine ecological and economic models in systems analysis. For example,
a systems analysis approach to environmental assessment and management was used
in the Oetzertal (Valley of the River Oetz, Austria) from 1971, as part of the UNESCO
Man and Biosphere Program. This alpine valley ecosystem has experienced great change
as a consequence of tourism, especially skiing, and, with the help of the modelling,
managers now have a clear idea of what is needed to sustain tourism and maintain
environmental quality (Moser and Peterson, 1981). In the early 1990s the USA
established a nation-wide Environmental Management and Monitoring Program (EMAP)
to aid ecological risk analysis by assessing trends in condition of ecosystems – so far a controversial and expensive exercise. Natural disaster risk assessment is attracting
interest, especially since the late 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (Chen, 2005).