To generate a recession scenario with a drop in real GDP in the OECD+
region, we reduce OECD+primary factor endowments—reducing employment as well as capital,
land and natural resource utilisation. As a result, with the fall in income, OECD+commodity demand from all regions of origin will drop, forcing real adjustments in the rest of the world. The set-up allows decomposing the total effect into effects due to a recession in high-income Europe, North America and high-income Asia. The analysis is also extended to include a recession in China (Table 2).