16. Our study is not the first to predict differences in behavior between firms that fall short
of their consensus earnings forecasts and those that reach or exceed these income
goals. The negative and significant coefficients on Miss, Miss_Amount, and
Miss*Miss_Amount from Table 2 in DGM 2004 (446) indicate that (1) firms that would
miss their consensus earnings forecasts absent tax expense management experience
negative ETR changes between the third and fourth quarters, (2) firms that would meet
or beat their consensus earnings forecasts absent tax expense management experience
positive ETR changes between the third and fourth quarters, and (3) the magnitude of
ETR changes is greater for firms that would miss their consensus earnings forecasts
because the incentive to reach these income targets is greater than the incentive to build
cookie jar reserves.