Although you might agree with the l

Although you might agree with the logic of the three-step investment process, you might wonder how well this process works in selecting investments. The results of several academic studies have supported this technique. First, studies indicated that most changes in an individual firm’s earnings could be attributed to changes in aggregate corporate earnings and changes in earnings for the firm’s industry, with the aggregate earnings changes being more important. Although the relative influence of the general economy and the industry on a firm’s earnings varied among individual firms, the results consistently demonstrated that the economic environment had a significant effect on firm earnings.

Second, studies by Moore and Cullity (1988) and Siegel (1991) found a relationship between aggregate stock prices and various economic series, such as employment, income, and production. These results supported the view that a relationship exists between stock prices and economic expansions and contractions.

Third, an analysis of the relationship between rates of return for the aggregate stock market, alternative industries, and individual stocks showed that most of the changes in rates of return for individual stocks could be explained by changes in the rates of return for the aggregate stock market and the stock’s industry. As shown by Meyers (1973), although the importance of the market effect tended to decline over time and the significance of the industry effect varied among industries, the combined market-industry effect on an individual stock’s rate of return was still important.

Results (Indonesian) 2:

Meskipun Anda mungkin setuju dengan logika proses investasi tiga langkah, Anda mungkin bertanya-tanya seberapa baik proses ini bekerja dalam memilih investasi. Hasil beberapa penelitian akademik telah mendukung teknik ini. Pertama, penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar perubahan laba sebuah perusahaan individu dapat dikaitkan dengan perubahan pendapatan perusahaan agregat dan perubahan laba untuk industri perusahaan, dengan perubahan laba agregat menjadi lebih penting. Meskipun pengaruh relatif dari ekonomi secara umum dan industri pada pendapatan perusahaan ini bervariasi antara perusahaan individual, hasil konsisten menunjukkan bahwa lingkungan ekonomi memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap pendapatan perusahaan.

Kedua, studi oleh Moore dan Cullity (1988) dan Siegel (1991 ) menemukan hubungan antara harga saham gabungan dan berbagai seri ekonomi, seperti pekerjaan, pendapatan, dan produksi. Hasil ini mendukung pandangan bahwa ada hubungan antara harga saham dan ekspansi ekonomi dan kontraksi.

Ketiga, analisis hubungan antara tingkat pengembalian pasar saham agregat, industri alternatif, dan saham individual menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar perubahan di tingkat imbalan saham individu dapat dijelaskan oleh perubahan dalam tingkat pengembalian pasar saham agregat dan industri saham. Seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh Meyers (1973), meskipun pentingnya efek pasar cenderung menurun dari waktu ke waktu dan signifikansi efek industri bervariasi antara industri, efek pasar-industri gabungan di tingkat individu saham untuk pulang masih penting.