regions are their status as net fuel exporters in combination with very high shares of fuel exports in total export revenue – ranging from 87% for Nigeria and 86% for South Central Africa13 to 42% for North Africa. Within this ―top-four‖ group of worst-hit regions, the terms of trade deterioration translates into a substantially more pronounced welfare loss for Nigeria and South Central Africa compared to North Africa and Central Africa, because the former two regions feature significantly higher export/GDP ratios (nearly 60%) than the latter (around 40%) and are therefore more vulnerable to the adverse external shock. For the same reason, a number of regions with low export/GDP ratios including Uganda and the Rest of East Africa show relatively moderate aggregate welfare losses despite a strong negative terms of trade effect, while for countries with a high degree of openness – e.g. Cambodia and Vietnam – relatively mild terms of trade losses entail considerable aggregate welfare losses.
Figure 4: Change in Real Absorption by Country