Schmidt (2006) finds that changes in ETRs are positively correlated with future
earnings, consistent with the “last chance earnings management” explanation of
DGM 2004. Gleason and Mills (2006b) extend these findings, demonstrating that,
when firms meet or beat earnings forecasts by decreasing fourth-quarter tax
expense, the market discounts the reward by an economically significant amount.
However, like DGM 2004, Gleason and Mills (2006b) attribute this result to an
earnings management explanation and do not investigate the extent to which these
ETR changes result from investments in tax planning.