Diminishing fiscal consolidation and healing labor
markets are underpinning domestic demand,
although conditions vary across countries. Since
the start of the European Central Bank’s (ECB)
quantitative easing program, credit conditions
have improved and credit growth has resumed
following several years of contraction. However,
credit remains tight in some countries because of
elevated non-performing loans and impaired bank
balance sheets. Despite the monetary policy
easing, the euro appreciated about 7 percent in
trade-weighted terms since reaching a low in April
2015, mainly reflecting the broad-based
depreciation of emerging-market currencies. This
may reduce somewhat the momentum of export
growth and delay a pick-up in inflation. Although the impact may vary depending on the underlying
factors driving currency movements, results from a
number of macroeconomic models indicate that a
7 percent euro appreciation reduces Euro Area
GDP growth by between 0.2-0.4 percentage
point, and inflation by 0.1-0.5 percentage point
(ECB 2015a, European Commission 2015a).