4. Impact of an OECD-Wide Recession
This section presents the main simulation results for the ―oecdall‖ crisis scenario, while
section 5 summarizes results for the other scenarios listed in Table 2.
The downturn in high-income regions reduces OECD+ final demand and intermediate
input demand for goods and services from all regions and entails a terms of trade
deterioration for all other countries vis-à-vis the OECD+ bloc. Due to the slowdown of
economic activity, the average world market price of fuels drops markedly relative to
other goods and services, and the world market price of other primary commodities also
falls relative to agricultural goods and processed food, manufactures and traded
services.11