An uptick in bad loans at commercial banks looms next year as some sectors fail to benefit from the current economic recovery, says a senior Bank of Thailand official.
"The increase in NPLs (non-performing loans) in the third quarter convinced us that the figure would not stop at 2.89% and is likely to stay in an upward trend next year," said Don Nakornthab, senior director at the Bank of Thailand.
"Given the economic recovery momentum, we think NPLs will peak next year."
Commercial banks' gross NPLs rose to 2.89% of loans outstanding at the end of September from 2.72% recorded at the end of June and 2.64% at the end of March, according to central bank data.
The gross NPL ratio at the end of September was close to the recent high of 2.95% recorded at the end of June 2011.
The outstanding value of distressed loans was 394 billion baht at the end of September, up from 374 billion in the preceding three months.
Mr Don said that September's NPL ratio increased at a faster pace than in June, greater than the central bank had predicted.
He said NPLs increased in all type of loans.
Bad SME loans climbed to 4.04% of loans outstanding at the end of September, up from 3.77% at the end of June.
Business loans deteriorated in almost all loan segments, particularly those associated with industry and commerce, suggesting that businesses are still under pressure from the slow and uneven economic recovery.
Industrial NPLs surged to 5.59% of total loans at the end of September from 5.35% at the end of June, while commercial NPLs climbed to 4.96% from 4.66%.
Bad consumer debts rose from 2.60% to 2.73% at the end of September and could be seen almost across the board with the exception of auto loans, Mr Don said.
Bad housing loans rose from 2.66% to 2.81% and credit card NPLs surged to their highest level in the past 10 years at 5.10% from 2.25%.
The bad-loan ratio this quarter is expected to fall relative to the third quarter on NPL write-offs and debt restructuring.
Commercial banks' loans expanded 2.4% year-on-year, slowing from 3.3% growth at the end of June.
The lower loan growth could be attributed to banks' prudential approach coupled with thin demand, Mr Don said.